THE IMMEDIATE REACTION Impact on travel demand after Paris

Posted on 11/18/2015

Business Travel Coalition conducted a survey over the weekend into Monday in response to the terror attacks in Paris last Friday evening. The purpose of the survey was to provide an early snapshot for travel and risk managers to understand how companies and other organizations are responding regarding potential near-term travel policy changes.

Eighty-four (84) corporate, university and government travel, sourcing and risk managers from seventeen (17) countries participated in the survey. The survey can be found at https://btcnews.co/1WYOShA.

Importantly, the results are prospective in the sense that any travel policy changes, for most organizations, have not yet been decided upon, but rather, are under consideration in real time.

As the French government investigation proceeds, and facts change, e.g., discovery of additional imminent attacks, or actual attacks, organizational responses regarding travel policy could change significantly. The survey results provided below will act as a baseline for future surveys to gauge response to moving circumstances.

SUMMARY RESULTS

•    20% of survey participants are very or somewhat likely to cancel travel to France for some period of time.

•    20% are somewhat likely to cancel travel to to/within Europe for some period of time.

•    70% are very or somewhat likely to allow employees discretion with regard to travel to France

•    55% are very or somewhat likely to allow employees discretion with regard to travel to/within Europe.

•    16% are very or somewhat likely to cancel travel to France until the investigation determines if the attack is just one of many in the planning stages

•    5% are very or somewhat likely to cancel travel to/within Europe until the investigation determines if the attack is just one of many more in the planning stages.

•    30% are very or somewhat likely to cancel travel to France if the attack is just one of many more in the planning stages until strategic modifications to travel policy are considered.

•    35% are very or somewhat likely to cancel travel to/within Europe if the attack is just one of many more in the planning stages until strategic modifications to travel policy are considered.

•    55% indicate their company’s Duty-of-Care policy will drive any modification to travel policy.

ANALYSIS

Not surprisingly the vast majority of companies/organizations are likely to provide their employees personal discretion regarding travel to France and to and within Europe - 70% and 55% respectively.

Some 20% of survey participants are likely to cancel travel to France and to and within Europe for some period of time. If the French government investigation determines that Friday’s terror attack was just one of many more in the planning stages, then 30% of organizations indicate that they will likely cancel travel to France until strategic modifications to travel policy are considered. Of course, additional terror attacks could cause further significant erosion in travel demand affecting all travel sectors.

The airline industry is a highly leveraged one in the sense that the last several passengers that board an airplane can often make the difference between profit and loss on any given flight.

As such, the percentages of potential restraint on demand discovered in this survey should be of concern to governments, airlines, hotel and rental car companies and other travel and tourism providers. In the coming days airline and other booking data should shed more light on the terror attack’s impact on travel demand.

SURVEY QUESTIONS & RESPONSES

Given what we know now about the attacks how likely are the following travel policy modifications?

My company will cancel to travel to France for some period of time.

10.5% Very likely 10.5% Somewhat likely 42.1% Somewhat unlikely 36.8% Very unlikely

My company will cancel to travel to/within Europe for some period of time.

0%   Very likely 20% Somewhat likely 20% Somewhat unlikely 60% Very unlikely

My company will allow employees discretion with regard to travel to France.

25% Very likely 45% Somewhat likely 15% Somewhat unlikely 15% Very unlikely

My company will allow employees discretion with regard to travel to/within Europe.

35% Very likely 20% Somewhat likely 30% Somewhat unlikely 15% Very unlikely

My company will cancel travel to France until the investigation determines if the attack is just one of many in the planning stages.

5.3%   Very likely 10.3% Somewhat likely 26.3% Somewhat unlikely 57.9% Very unlikely

My company will cancel travel to/within Europe until the investigation determines if the attack is just one of many more in the planning stages.

5%   Very likely 0%   Somewhat likely 20% Somewhat unlikely 75% Very unlikely

If the attack is just one of many more in the planning stages, then my company will cancel travel to France until strategic modifications to travel policy are considered.

15% Very likely 15% Somewhat likely 55% Somewhat unlikely 15% Very unlikely

If the attack is just one of many more in the planning stages, then my company will cancel travel to to/within Europe until strategic modifications to travel policy are considered.

10% Very likely 25% Somewhat likely 50% Somewhat unlikely 15% Very unlikely

Our company’s Duty of Care policy will drive any modification to travel policy.

0%   Strongly Disagree 20% Disagree 25% Unsure 50% Agree 5%   Strongly Agree